IDC: Happy days are here again, and they're made in China

IDC's top boffin sees a mid-year revival for the IT industry driven by demand from China and growing need for security products.

IDC's chief research officer, John Gantz, has laid out his top 10 predictions, seeing US IT spending climbing between four and six per cent in the new year, and with spending in Western Europe up 10 to 12 per cent.

The growth of the Chinese market, unlocked by the People's Republic's accession to the World Trade Organisation last year, will be the main engine for IT growth.

IDC predicts China will become the world's third largest IT market by 2010.

IDC foresees a good year for Microsoft, with 75 million copies of Windows XP flying off the shelves in 2002. The company's Passport authentication system will grow in popularity, but will fall short of becoming the single secure sign-on system that Microsoft hopes.

Meanwhile, 2002 will be a breakout year for Linux, Gantz said. Surviving one of the toughest years in computer history, Linux has proved it is a serious rival to Microsoft.

Gantz also predicted that server blades will begin to cut the mustard in 2002. Though the slim, rack-mountable servers won't make a big dent in the market this year, they will start to take off, sparking off a shake-up in the server market, with a couple of specialist start-ups poised to do well.

Gantz sees the rapid growth of wireless networks continuing, a trend which will bring problems as well as benefits as enterprises are not yet geared up to meet the security demands of those customers.

Meanwhile, the 'Bin Laden' effect will keep security at the top of IT agendas in the government and private sectors.