Could chip and PIN make society more violent?

With the deadline for retailers to have chip and PIN having come and gone, merchants are looking forward to seeing fraud dwindle - but where will the crime reappear next?

According to delegates at today's Retail Fraud Conference in London, chip and PIN may cut down some card fraud for retailers but it may actually boost crime in other areas.

Robbery was one of the favourites to mop up some of the criminal activity that chip and PIN could help to decrease.

Doug Smith of Leicester University Criminology department said: "The displacement is bank to bank robberies... Organised crime will look for an easier target."

Adrian Sherry, security solutions manager, said he expected the crime transference would mean a rise in card not present and telesales fraud.

Criminology Professor Martin Gill said: "We know offenders adapt very quickly. If you look to the European example... don't think [criminals] won't find a way round it." He added that ATM robberies are likely to become attractive to thieves after the advent of chip and PIN.

For all the claims of the death of fraud that will result from the introduction of the signature-replacement technology, some analysts warn that retailers are looking in the wrong place if they want to protect their assets.

John Davison, VP and research director at analyst house Gartner, said that retailers should be looking elsewhere if they want to stymie the fraudsters.

Last year, £400m was lost to card fraud, according to figures from payments body APACS. "Compared to the shrinkage [stock loss] figure, it's a drop in the ocean."

However, with ecommerce continuing its steamroller growth, that might be about to change. Davison added the internet is now the "most popular" method of committing card not present fraud and 12 times the amount of fraud exists on the internet than in store.

Professor Gill added that changing from offline to online fraud has both advantages and disadvantages in the criminal's eyes.

Offenders "adapt very quickly", he said. "An environment where you don't have to be present and get the goods [yourself] is a dream for them." However, he added, "immediacy is a factor" - the delayed payback for the crime may serve as a deterrent.