Leader: Hotmail AV deal - the scurrilous rumour angle

We've all been there - needing a favour from somebody we've previously angered, annoyed, scorned or spurned.

Maybe you needed a favour from a neighbour just days after bawling them out for parking across your driveway. Perhaps you turned up for a job interview only to find the interviewer was somebody you just insulted in the car park outside over some minor inconsideration.

Or maybe you were looking to renew a multimillion dollar contract with a company you earlier in the year rebuked over alleged takeover talks.

News broke today that McAfee has lost its highly lucrative contract with MSN Hotmail.

In June McAfee, normally silent on such matters, was outspoken in denying any possible deal with Microsoft when it was alleged the Seattle giant had aspirations of ready-made security market share.

silicon.com has no evidence - beyond a complex equation of sod's law multiplied by human nature - to suggest there is any link between the two events, and McAfee is certainly remaining tight-lipped now.

However, it is easy to imagine the antivirus firm possibly wishing its rebuttal had been a little less strident.

Of course for Microsoft to find a security company which hasn't been in some way disparaging in the past would always have been a quest. It certainly wasn't going to be Symantec if such a criteria did exist.

At the time of the McAfee rumours it was widely believed Microsoft did have a large sum of money earmarked for a major acquisition in the security space - for many McAfee was the likeliest target though reasoning and hard facts were sketchy at best.

So, the next point is definitely one to file under 'wild speculation'.

But the question is, if that money still exists should we read anything into Trend getting into bed with Microsoft at this time?

After all, if ever there was a time to bury inaccurate future predictions it's year end when everybody else is doing it.

The components of this guesswork are simple. Consolidation is likely to continue apace in the security market and Microsoft is expected to play a major part.

McAfee has ruled itself out. Symantec looks set to go it alone and continue with its own acquisition strategy. So what chance Trend?