IDC: Cyberterror to hit in 2003

By Ed Frauenheim

A major cyberterrorism event will occur in 2003, a technology research group predicted on Thursday, one that will disrupt the economy and bring the internet to its knees for at least a day or two.

The event could take the form of a denial of service attack, a network intrusion or even a physical attack on key network assets, said John Gantz, chief research officer of IDC. Gantz spoke during a teleconference in which the research company laid out its annual forecast of technology developments in the coming year.

"The war with Iraq will galvanise hackers," Gantz said.

IDC's list of 10 predictions included sunnier projections, too, however. Chief among them was the company's view that spending on information technology and telecommunications will grow by more than six per cent next year, reaching $1.9 trillion. Gantz said current data on US IT spending and revenues from technology vendors worldwide are encouraging.

IDC generates the list of 10 projections by polling its more-than-700 analysts. Gantz said the company is usually right with seven out of its 10 predictions. Successful predictions from last year, he said, included "streaming media will catch on," "corporations will reset security plans" and "web services hype reaches hysteria levels."

IDC guessed wrong about widespread use of digital identification services such as Microsoft's Passport product. The company was also off-target in predicting an IT industry recovery beginning in mid-2002.

"We know in hindsight that's definitely not the case," Gantz said. "We missed that one."

Other visions in IDC's crystal ball for 2003 are that sales of mid-range server computers will rebound to positive growth after a 20 per cent contraction in 2002; that adoption of 64-bit computing will be slow; and that the Linux operating system will snag market share from the Unix operating system.

"We're saying that Linux will eat Unix," Gantz said.

According to IDC, a recent trend is companies deploying vital commercial applications - such as stock exchange software - on clusters of computers running Linux.

Other predictions from IDC include the following.
* The project-based IT services market will be flat or down again, as companies scale down project size and turn to IT outsourcing.

* Wireless local area networks will take off, which will delay the introduction of so-called third-generation wireless communications networks. IDC expects telecommunications carriers to use visitor-based networks - so-called "hot spots" - for high-speed internet access.

* Telecommunications capital expenditures will drop again, by at least five per cent. But spending in emerging markets such as China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Russia will grow significantly, and spending to support cellular services will grow.

* Online messaging will grow by 27 per cent, with no guarantee that productivity will grow. The total number of emails sent will rise 30 per cent to 40 billion a day, and the number of corporate instant messaging users will double to more than 30 million. Spam and automatic alerts and notifications will grow to almost 40 per cent of all email traffic. "There will be more spam in your life," Gantz said.

* Imaging will go digital, but the industry will still centere on film. Digital images - from scanners, digital cameras and mobile devices - will surpass the number of film images captured per day by the end of the year. But because of factors including omnipresence and ease-of-use, film will remain relevant.

Ed Frauenheim writes for News.com