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Minority Report: Apple changing its spots
Will acceptance of Intel and Microsoft equal market-share boost?

By Seb Janacek

Published: Tuesday 11 July 2006

One by one Apple is addressing the objections to going Mac - from switching to Intel chips to accepting Windows. So can we expect a major PC-to-Mac migration? Seb Janacek isn't betting on it.

Apple has announced that a host of executives including CEO Steve Jobs will preview the next version of the Mac OS X operating system - aka Leopard - at its Worldwide Developers Conference in early August.

While Mac OS X 10.5 represents the pinnacle of a sustained period of innovation from Apple and no doubt will be embraced by its dedicated user base, Leopard is unlikely to alter either the company's market share significantly, or its perception in corporate IT departments or even among large numbers of individual PC users.

This is despite the fact Macs are now operating on a level playing-field with PC competitors with nippy Intel chips, meaning Apple no longer has to spend marketing dollars combating the so-called megahertz myth. The added ability to run Windows and Windows applications on a Mac (via Boot Camp) would seem to make the Mac a no-brainer for consumers and businesses alike. But expect only the subtlest of effects.

While firm facts about what Leopard actually contains are thin on the ground, there are some pretty interesting rumours circulating online. Two in particular merit attention.

One of the surest bets is a redesigned Finder (the Mac equivalent of Windows Explorer) which allows the user to browse files, media and folders, and sits at the very centre of the user interface.

The existing Finder has irked many for its questionable usability, frequently poor performance (particularly on network access) and erratic behaviour.

It's thought Apple's Spotlight search technology - undoubtedly the jewel in Tiger's (OS X 10.4) crown - will be key to the redesigned Finder window, employing user or system-assigned metadata to aid searches.

However, the most intriguing element within Leopard is undoubtedly Boot Camp. The software allows Windows XP to be installed on a separate partition on Intel-based Macs. Apple surprised many observers when it unveiled the currently unsupported Boot Camp in April, putting a platform so derided at the heart of its computers.

When Boot Camp was launched, the company signalled a fully supported version would form part of Leopard.

Perhaps the most interesting speculation about Leopard on rumour sites and blogs is that Apple will offer full virtualisation capabilities in the OS rather than simply allowing dual booting, as Boot Camp does.

Adding fuel to this speculation is the fact that, since the launch of Boot Camp, Apple has touted the benefits of an excellent virtualisation package offered by third-party software developer Parallels.

Parallels, released just a few days after the public beta of Boot Camp, allows users to install a copy of Windows in a secure virtual machine alongside OS X and run Windows applications natively without having to reboot the computer.

It sounds like a fine opportunity for the traditional 'One More Thing... ' segment at the end of Steve Jobs' keynote speeches.

Apple is clearly in its strongest position for years to tilt its lance at the disaffected Windows users, who are sick of security woes and virus headaches and are tired of waiting for Vista.

Most of the Mac line has now transferred to Intel chips with only the high-end Power Mac range, aimed primarily at professionals, yet to make the transition - although the final piece in the puzzle is likely to be in place by the time Leopard is released, probably at the San Francisco MacWorld conference in early 2007.

Apple's hardware offering is now compelling and complete. Macs run a chip nomenclature that consumers are conversant with rather than the relatively unknown PowerPC chip and feature an attractive price-performance ratio - one measure they often fell short on when compared to Wintels, although in recent years this perception has been levelled unfairly.

What the company can focus on now is purely selling a feature-rich operating system, mostly free from security problems with a strong bundled suite of iLife applications. The innovation and research it has invested in its technology can now come to bear.

The company's output in big cat operating systems has been prolific since the launch of the first publicly available beta in 2001, the same year Microsoft launched XP. Since then, Apple has enriched the features in its OS significantly whereas Microsoft has primarily released service packs geared at resolving the system's myriad security issues.

Proof of Microsoft's lack of innovation is the fact that the upcoming Windows Vista, judging by early screenshots, features an interface influenced in no small part by OS X.

When Steve Jobs previewed Tiger during June 2005's Worldwide Developers Conference, banners around conference hall read: 'This should keep Redmond busy', 'Redmond, start your photocopiers' and 'Redmond, we have a problem'.

Because it controls both hardware and software, Apple is better placed to enjoy the luxury of innovation in operating system development. It's also helpful that it has a comparatively small user-base whereas Vista has to cater for a far broader range of users, stakeholders and developers - hence the multiple versions of Vista.

Meanwhile, Redmond's upgrade path is far more complex - with a gigantic network of partners, developers and users that need to be accommodated. Nonetheless, the seemingly endless delays to Vista have caused Microsoft considerable embarrassment.

Earlier this year, Apple launched its Get a Mac campaign, the second phase of its Switch programme, aimed at attracting disaffected PC users from its target audiences.

Given it now offers competitively prices Intel-based hardware and a new OS that allows users to run Windows apps and more, some evangelists are predicting these efforts are likely to significantly increase or even double Apple's market share. But will it? Fat chance.

As I wrote in a previous column, Apple isn't interested in selling cheap boxes and competing on low prices - this would be anathema both to its ethos of delivering quality products and to its high margins.

When Vista launches, the vast majority of the discussion will be whether to upgrade to the new Windows from XP or not - rather than whether an organisation or individual should switch platforms altogether, which is a shame as this is what Apple could potentially offer with Boot Camp and possibly virtualisation.

The fact that you can now run your Windows apps on a Mac won't escape the notice of PC users with a rudimentary understanding of virtualisation. But it won't cause a mass migration, either.

It's inevitable that such a major release of an OS against a new version of Windows will get the faithful excited about a new window of opportunity to claw back swathes of market share for the Cupertino company but Apple won't be counting on it. As ever, the company will target its key markets and aim for small - though given the size and nature of its market - significant growth.

It'll definitely keep the meter ticking over and keep Apple a profitable, healthy company. But any die-hard Mac evangelists blind enough to think it will turn the tide are deluding themselves utterly.