Doubts linger over Vista D-day

Microsoft is on track to ship Windows Vista to businesses in November and to consumers in January, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs. But analysts at Gartner believe Microsoft could benefit by delaying Vista until next Easter.

Goldman Sachs analyst Rick Sherlund circulated a note to clients on Wednesday saying the final Beta test version of Windows Vista will be sent out later this week, leaving Microsoft set to hit its end-of-year deadline.

According to Reuters, Sherlund wrote: "We had been sceptical of the launch schedule but the team seems to be making great progress in addressing issues of performance, reliability and compatibility."

Gartner took issue with the timing of the Vista launch earlier this year, suggesting ideally it should have been out in plenty of time for the crucial Christmas market. In response, Sherlund said the suggestion Microsoft will offer coupons that PC makers can give away for a free upgrade to Vista may help here.

Sherlund wrote: "This might help offset the apprehensions in the industry that the January launch of Vista... will negatively affect PC demand in the seasonally strongest holiday quarter as consumers hold off for the new product."

Gartner also argued in September that a number of factors make it more likely Microsoft may delay the launch of Vista until at least May next year.

The reservations were laid out in a research note, Events aligning to make Vista delay more likely, and take in market, political and industry issues that the researcher said are beginning to stack up against Microsoft. The most significant is the ongoing legal battles between Microsoft and the European Commission.

Both Gartner and Goldman Sachs broadly agree there is no technical reason why Vista should be delayed and that the software is ready to roll at the end of the year. Any divergence comes around issues such as the role of the EC.

On Wednesday it emerged Microsoft has appealed against the €280.5m fine imposed by the European Commission in July this year because the software giant failed to comply with the landmark 2004 antitrust ruling.

A delay for Vista now would be convenient for Microsoft, according to Gartner analyst David Mitchell-Smith, because "when people start complaining about the delay, Microsoft can reasonably say 'don't blame us' and point the finger at the EC".

Microsoft is "probably getting a bit tired" of the EU's stance, said Mitchell-Smith. "It's not unreasonable to think so."

Mitchell-Smith also suggested Microsoft wants to avoid further litigation, as it is already facing actions from Adobe and Symantec. "While it would go far to settle corporate lawsuits. it is less likely to be able to resolve legal action by the EC as easily," he said.

Colin Barker writes for ZDNet UK