Podcasting set to skyrocket?

The number of people who download free serial audio programmes, or podcasts, is set to explode over the next few years, according to a new report.

Researchers at The Diffusion Group predicted this week that the US podcast audience will climb from 840,000 in 2004 to 56 million by 2010. By that time, three-quarters of all people who own portable digital music players will listen to podcasts, up from less than 15 per cent last year, the digital entertainment research group said.

The forecast comes amid much hype over podcasting. Apple, whose iPod music player spawned the term "podcast", recently added 3,000 podcast programmes to its iTunes online music store. And what started out as a system for distributing homespun radio programming over the web has now caught on with big media companies. ABC News, ESPN Disney, National Public Radio and NBC News have all introduced podcast programming in recent months.

Apple's move to promote podcasts will bolster the trend, Marc Freedman, the author of The Diffusion Group report, noted. "It will absolutely continue to fuel this explosive growth in podcasting," he said.

In addition to his work for The Diffusion Group, Freedman is the CEO of file-sharing software start-up RazorPop, which facilitates the swapping of media files, including podcasts, over the web.

But collecting podcast statistics is a tricky business. The Pew Internet and American Life Project created a stir a few months ago when it claimed a whopping six million Americans are listening to podcasts. The non-profit's research director later backtracked when pressed by web log Engadget, admitting the number was probably too high because of the way the group phrased its survey.

Even The Diffusion Group's figures are much higher than those found in podcast forecasts from other research firms. For instance, Forrester Research predicted in April that just 12.3 million US households will use MP3 players to listen to audio podcasts by the end of the decade.

Freedman said he based his forecast on The Diffusion Group's data on sales of portable digital music players and high-speed internet penetration. The report was not based on a survey, he said. The Diffusion Group, a research firm formed last year in Dallas, employs 10 analysts and advises a number of major electronics companies, including Dell, HP, Intel and Microsoft.

Alorie Gilbert writes for CNET News.com